Innovative Concept Video

https://animoto.com/play/glxk4zreI8HR2GHspn0ABQ

Serendipity, Error and Exaptation

When I think of the term "serendipity", my mind first goes to the song "Sweet Serendipity" by Lee DeWyze. The song is about how the artist's day happens to be going well, everything seems to take care of itself in perfect timing. My definition of serendipity is, "The force that, seemingly by chance, causes events or outcomes to occur at just the right time, place or circumstance." The first invention that comes to mind that embodies this is the invention of penicillin. When a petri dish became accidentally contaminated with penicillin mold, the intended bacteria would not grown in the culture. This lead to the lifesaving discovery of an antibiotic, simply by a culture becoming contaminated (Grift, 2016).

The term "error" can be defined as "any action or event that occurs in opposition to the intended action or event". An invention that well embodies "error", the discovery of radium. Although the discovery itself is not so much of an error as the result of the discovery. Marie Curie's assistant, Blanche Wittman would come to lose three limbs due to radiation poisoning caused by research on radiation. The irony of the situation is the current usage of radium to solve some of the most difficult medical cases, specifically cancer (Enright, 2006).

The term "Exaptation" defined in my own words, "the evolution of new functionality of a feature that was not previously present". The first invention that comes to mind is a project I worked on in a previous career. Due to changing regulation, smaller aircraft were now required to have on-board GPS location systems. A number of these small planes were not equip with this technology. In response to demand, a company developed a replacement light bulb on the wing of the aircraft that added GPS functionality to the plane. This unit replaced a simple wing light and enabled new functionality. Because I'm unsure of the commercialization and patent process of this technology, I will not reveal the company who was developing this technology.

References:

Enright, A. (2006, Nov 04). Review: Fiction: A deadly blue light: A tale of love, hysteria and the discovery of radium appeals to anne enright: The story of blanche and marie by per olov enquist, translated by tiina nunnally 215pp, harvill secker, pounds 16.99. The Guardian https://coloradotech.idm.oclc.org/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/newspapers/review-fiction-deadly-blue-light-tale-love/docview/246538945/se-2?accountid=144789

 Grift, K. (2016, Mar 03). GREAT INVENTIONS PENICILLIN. The Mercury https://coloradotech.idm.oclc.org/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/newspapers/great-inventions-penicillin/docview/1769818764/se-2?accountid=144789

Scenario Planning Case Study

 

Scenario planning can be used by businesses, organizations and individuals in an attempt to forecast the future. These activities can lay the groundwork for understanding the future state and the steps that must be taken to achieve the perceived scenarios. To successfully execute a well-rounded scenario planning process, experts from all different angles should be leveraged. The resulting scenario will be engrained with the collective knowledge of the group that designed it.

One particular case study analyzed the results of a scenario planning activity performed in academia. The University of West England (UWE) brought together key administrative staff in 2011 to use scenario planning to methodologically structure their Academic Services department (Maggs & Chelin, 2013).

The department needed changes based on a few key limitations. Future years would demand the department to sustain or reduce the current budget while maintaining or increasing services offered. In addition to the financial forces involved in the decision there was also a structural approach to the restructure. The department’s current organizational structure was not meeting the demands of the staff and was notably difficult to manage. Finally, technological forces were pushing the organization to upgrade the services and service structure to meet the changing landscape.

The scenario planning was designed to be very focused and time boxed. The committee originally planned to meet for a single day but elected to extend it to three different sessions to meet the complex scheduling conflicts of the core team. The scenario planning team tried to triangulate based on three different scenarios, two extreme scenarios and one moderate scenario. The approach was focused on trying to forecast the potential future guiding directions (Maggs & Chelin, 2013).

After meeting as a group, a path consisting of a combination of the three scenarios was proposed and implemented. Most notably, researchers went back and researched the individuals who were involved in the process for their opinion. The individuals that were involved from the very beginning felt the resulting decisions would be challenging but were less stressed and threatened by the final decision. However, some individuals were brought in after the initial brainstorming was completed. These individuals felt as if their opinion could not influence the direction of the decision and therefor felt more defensive and stressed by the final implementation (Maggs & Chelin, 2013).

From researching this case study I was able to see the practical applications of a scenario planning event. This strategy can be used anytime an organization desires to predict or influence future predictions. The applications presented in this case study were not overly complex in their implementation and presented an organized approach to influence innovation and to guide future change.

 

 

References

 

Maggs, P., & Chelin, J. (2013, 2013). Scenario planning for an uncertain future?: Case study of the restructuring of the Academic Services team at UWE Library. Library Management, 34(8/9), 664-676. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/LM-02-2013-0017

Business Forecasting

Business forecasting, “is the activity of predicting or estimating the feature position of the sales, expenditures, and profits of any business” (Singh et al., 2018). Forecasting can be used as a business tool to predict and plan for future conditions. The better a business forecast represents the actual future state, the more ability a business has to respond to or influence the trajectory.

            To successfully design a prediction model, a foundational dataset must be achieved. The goal of the prediction must be identified and data surrounding the problem gathered. Once a dataset is constructed, mathematical functions can be applied to build a forecasting model. Methods including machine learning, statistical analysis and linear correlations (Singh et al., 2018).

            While not all forecasts accurately predict future states, the accuracy of particular forecasts are startling. Following the Ebola outbreak, Bill Gates began predicting the next pandemic. In an article, “The Next Epidemic – Lessons from Ebola”, predictions are made indicating the future of pandemics, many of these predictions closely model the influences observed during the COVID-19 outbreak. Most notable are the medical and political influences that are involved in these predictions.

            Medically, the forecast predicted a need for increased research in RNA-based constructs. Politically, the forecast calls out the infrastructure surrounding global health, “there are still big holes in the world’s ability to respond to an epidemic” (Gates, 2015). Political influences are called upon to construct a global response system.

 

 

References

 

Gates, B. (2015, 2018-09-13). The Next Epidemic — Lessons from Ebola. The New England Journal of Medicine, 372(15), 1381-1384. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMp1502918

 

Singh, D. A. A. G., Leavline, E. J., Muthukrishnan, S., & Yuvaraj, R. (2018, 2018-12-06). Machine Learning based Business Forecasting. International Journal of Information Engineering and Electronic Business, 11(6), 40. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.5815/ijieeb.2018.06.05

 

Prediction Methods: Scenario Planning vs. Traditional Forecasting

Business strategies require the ability to plan for the future. Organizations have numerous tools to leverage in an attempt to predict the future. Two of these such techniques include Scenario planning and traditional forecasting.

Scenario planning focuses on re-imagining potential future states by outlining a resultant scenario and the actions that would lead to the scenario. Scenario planning does not have a formalized methodology or guidelines associated to it. Instead, focus is placed on using intuition to creatively explore potential futures. 

When trying to imagine future scenarios, it is important the scenario building be orchestrated by knowledgeable experts  from across the organization and subject matter experts from outside the organization to provide varying perspectives.  The resulting scenarios will prove valuable due to the data and perspectives used to achieve them. The activity is supposed to be focused on simplicity. The resulting scenarios should not over complicate the current conditions or rely on complex situations to occur. 

Traditional forecasting relies on utilizing existing knowledge and data to build models to predict future trends. This forecasting can be based on numeric or non-numeric characteristics. Numeric based traditional forecasting leverages statistical tools and prediction models to predict future variables based on current conditions.  The accuracy of these models and their ability to represent the target problem can be represented numerically through the statistical tool, root mean square error.

References:

Bowman, G. (2016). The Practice of Scenario Planning: An Analysis of Inter- and Intra-organizational Strategizing. British Journal of Management, 27(1), 77–96. https://doi-org.coloradotech.idm.oclc.org/10.1111/1467-8551.12098

Fernandez, V. (2008). Traditional versus novel forecasting techniques: how much do we gain? Journal of Forecasting, 27(7), 637–648. https://doi-org.coloradotech.idm.oclc.org/10.1002/for.1066

A lifesaving accident: The Implantable Pacemaker

 

In business, companies fight to be the first to market with new product ideas. Creative research and development professionals strive to invent and create the product of the future. However, not all inventions are the result of hard work and dedication. History has proven errors or accidents can lead to some of the most innovative products. One tremendously successful lifesaving device, the implantable pacemaker was the result of one of these “accidents”.

            While researching an electronic device to monitor the heart’s signal, inventor William Greatbatch made a mistake. While constructing a circuit, he accidentally substituted a resistor much larger than the initial circuit required. Greatbatch realized the resultant circuit provided a repeatable electric pulse at regular intervals. Greatbatch had earned a bachelors degree in electrical engineering from Cornell University. He continued his education at the University of Buffalo to earn his masters degree in the same field. Due to his educational background, he understood the implications of his discovery.

            Greatbatch went on to continue research on the continued electric pulse. Initially realized in 1956, similar products began to hit the market in 1958. These competing products required significantly larger power sources and were not designed for being implanted inside patients. Greatbatch quit his job and spent three weeks in his barn developing the first prototype. This prototype was a success.

Inspired by his breakthrough, Greatbatch dedicated the following two years of his life on designing a streamlined concept. Working from home, he developed a device capable of being implanted inside patients. In 1960, the pacemaker was patented. The same year, the device was successfully implanted into a human patient. The following year, Medtronic bought the license for the device and began to bring the device to the mass market.

Greatbatch was not satisfied with his early successes in his device. He continued inventing to modify the concept from an “always on” pacemaker to one that detected the need and responded appropriately. Initial implanted devices utilized a battery that lasted approximately 18 months. In 1970, Greatbatch founded his company, Wilson Greatbatch Ltd, dedicated to extend the battery life of his initial inventions.

Greatbatch’s initial goal was to save 10,000 lives per year. In 2011, 460,000 devices were implanted. This innovation, while an accident, continues to be instrumental in the medical industry. The story of Wilso Greatbatch illustrates not every innovation is planned. Even accidents can change the world for the better.

X-ray of ICD from author's first implant in 2007

 

Authors note: In 2007, Logan was implanted with a pacemaker. This pacemaker helps mitigate the risk of a genetic heart syndrome, existent since birth. Since implantation, the device has triggered on three separate occasions, each time providing life-saving assistance. The author owes a debt of gratitude to accidental inventions.

 

References

Kermode-Scott, B. (2011). Wilson greatbatch. BMJ : British Medical Journal (Online), 343http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.d6765

SURPRISE EFFECTS. (2018, Nov 24). The Advertiser https://coloradotech.idm.oclc.org/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/newspapers/surprise-effects/docview/2137449698/se-2?accountid=144789

Wilson Greatbatch. (2008). In B. Narins (Ed.), Notable Scientists from 1900 to the Present. Gale. https://link.gale.com/apps/doc/K1619001952/BIC?u=tec_u_online&sid=summon&xid=4b1567d7

Group Decision Making: Delphi vs. Structured Dialogic Design

The Delphi Methodology is a systematic approach towards group decision making. The Method relies on leveraging the knowledge of a group of individuals on a particular topic. First, the research topic is selected. Each member of the think tank is invited to provide foundational input as to the key areas of influence in the research. The results are submitted anonymously and the results are tabulated. Once an extensive list of content is generated, the list is redistributed to the original group. The original group then rates the list items by order of importance. The rating is again submitted anonymously. The ratings are tabulated and redistributed to the group. The group then has a final opportunity to justify their rating and why they agree or disagree with the rating (Yousuf, 2007).

The Structured Dialogic Design (SDD) is considerably different than the Delphi Method. SDD relies on think tank participants to physically be co-located for the duration of the decision making process. Each researcher enters with some knowledge on he topic and an understanding they will partake in an open, constructive conversation. Researchers discuss the problem at hand while notes are taken from each perspective shared. The researchers may utilize clustering techniques to recognize similarities in concepts shared. Researchers will also attempt to prioritize the presented results. The items are challenged against one another such that item 1 should be compared against the utility it may provide to item 2. This method is designed to prevent voting based on inherent bias or by topic popularity (Laouris, 2012).

 

References

 

Laouris, Y. (2012, 01/01). The ABCs of the science of structured dialogic design. Int. J. of Applied Systemic Studies, 4, ied Systemic Studies. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJASS.2012.052235

 

Yousuf, M. I. (2007, 2021-01-08). Using Experts` Opinions Through Delphi Technique. Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, 12, 4. https://coloradotech.idm.oclc.org/login?url=https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/using-experts-opinions-through-delphi-technique/docview/2366825149/se-2

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