Scenario Planning Case Study

 

Scenario planning can be used by businesses, organizations and individuals in an attempt to forecast the future. These activities can lay the groundwork for understanding the future state and the steps that must be taken to achieve the perceived scenarios. To successfully execute a well-rounded scenario planning process, experts from all different angles should be leveraged. The resulting scenario will be engrained with the collective knowledge of the group that designed it.

One particular case study analyzed the results of a scenario planning activity performed in academia. The University of West England (UWE) brought together key administrative staff in 2011 to use scenario planning to methodologically structure their Academic Services department (Maggs & Chelin, 2013).

The department needed changes based on a few key limitations. Future years would demand the department to sustain or reduce the current budget while maintaining or increasing services offered. In addition to the financial forces involved in the decision there was also a structural approach to the restructure. The department’s current organizational structure was not meeting the demands of the staff and was notably difficult to manage. Finally, technological forces were pushing the organization to upgrade the services and service structure to meet the changing landscape.

The scenario planning was designed to be very focused and time boxed. The committee originally planned to meet for a single day but elected to extend it to three different sessions to meet the complex scheduling conflicts of the core team. The scenario planning team tried to triangulate based on three different scenarios, two extreme scenarios and one moderate scenario. The approach was focused on trying to forecast the potential future guiding directions (Maggs & Chelin, 2013).

After meeting as a group, a path consisting of a combination of the three scenarios was proposed and implemented. Most notably, researchers went back and researched the individuals who were involved in the process for their opinion. The individuals that were involved from the very beginning felt the resulting decisions would be challenging but were less stressed and threatened by the final decision. However, some individuals were brought in after the initial brainstorming was completed. These individuals felt as if their opinion could not influence the direction of the decision and therefor felt more defensive and stressed by the final implementation (Maggs & Chelin, 2013).

From researching this case study I was able to see the practical applications of a scenario planning event. This strategy can be used anytime an organization desires to predict or influence future predictions. The applications presented in this case study were not overly complex in their implementation and presented an organized approach to influence innovation and to guide future change.

 

 

References

 

Maggs, P., & Chelin, J. (2013, 2013). Scenario planning for an uncertain future?: Case study of the restructuring of the Academic Services team at UWE Library. Library Management, 34(8/9), 664-676. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/LM-02-2013-0017